Drivers of Chinese Manufacturing Investment in Africa, 2016-2017

Survey of 149 Chinese manufacturing firms in 4 African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania) conducted in 2016 and 2017. Firms were surveyed on their investment value, employment, and on the reasons why they invested, and their linkages with local, non-Chinese firms. The survey questionnaire contains approximately 50 questions allowing analysis of the firms’ provincial origins, the role played by incentives from sending and receiving countries, backward and forward linkages, employee training, and so on.

For the past decade, Sub-Saharan Africa has been growing, yet growth is not the same as structural transformation. China's development trajectory since 1980 provides an example of how a government focused on modernization can marshal foreign capital and technology to assist in the reduction of poverty and economic transformation in manufacturing and agriculture. In Africa, China is largely seen as a competitor for local firms, primarily through imports. This competition can be devastating in some countries and some sectors, driving local firms out of business. Yet on the other hand, growing Chinese investment in African manufacturing and contract farming can also offer opportunities for joint ventures with local firms, training, and diffusion of more productive technologies. If this were to follow Asian experience, Chinese firms could be catalysts for local firms to move into manufactured exports, although they might also be footloose investors, moving on with only fleeting impact on local knowledge. In agriculture, Chinese investment might also be enclave, with little connection to local farmers - the picture presented in fears of "land grabbing" - or it might follow the pattern laid out by foreign investors in China, with out-growers, demonstration farms, and technology and skills transfers. Our earlier research suggested that Chinese firms are thinking strategically about backward linkages. For example, at least five Chinese shoe manufacturers we interviewed in 2009 had moved their shoe-making assembly lines to Nigeria, while still importing uppers and soles from China. In 2012, one company was in discussions with their Chinese supplier about moving to Nigeria to produce soles locally from Nigerian rubber. Similarly, we have identified Chinese contract farming investments and commercial agriculture projects with demonstration farms, advisers, and input supplies in places like Mali, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. This project will enable a more refined picture of the actual scope and impact of Chinese investment and the potential and experience of technology transfer in commercial agriculture and agro-industry. We will combine multiple methods: database construction, scoping studies, cluster surveys, a national survey, and eight paired, comparative case studies, following an approach tested in our earlier research on Chinese agro-industrial and commercial agriculture engagement in Ethiopia (2011-2014), and Chinese commercial agricultural investment in Zambia and Zimbabwe (2013). The scoping studies will allow us to better map existing Chinese (and other) investment in agro-industry and commercial agriculture, while the cluster surveys will provide an overview of existing linkages and opportunities for technology transfer. A further level of depth will be obtained through adding a technology-transfer module to two national surveys of manufacturers. Finally, eight in-depth, paired case studies will complement the survey research by using process-tracing to compare specific experiences of agro-industrial FDI and technology transfer in China, with Chinese and a similar non-Chinese experience in Africa. For example, we will study the institutional framework and approach that allowed the Thai firm CP Group to become China's largest foreign investor in the Chinese poultry industry, with significant technology spinoffs, and compare this with the spinoffs and technology transfer from significant Chinese and South African investors in Zambia's poultry industry (Zhongken Farm and Astral Foods). The output of the research will be a far more robust basis for analysis of the current and future possibilities for technology transfer in China's African investment, and guidelines for governments and development partners to derive maximum benefit from these opportunities.

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