Data and Code for: The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility in Spain

We focus on a high-income, low-fertility country Spain and estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility. Spain was one of the two most COVID-19-affected countries in Europe and it imposed one of the strictest lockdowns on the continent. We exploit the unexpected announcement and immediate implementation of a strict, nationwide 8-week-long lockdown. We first predict the expected levels of fertility in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown by choosing from 14 competing models based on five cross-validation criteria. Then we calculate the differences between predicted and actual fertility levels 9 months after the lockdown. We find that overall, lockdown had a very negative effect on fertility (-14.6% in the two most affected months) while the post-lockdown relief led to an increased fertility (+5.7% during a 10-month period). The net effect is 1.6% but there is substantial heterogeneity between native (+4.7%) and foreign mothers (-16.9%).

Geographic Coverage:   Spain

Collection Notes:   Administrative records data

Data Source:  Spanish National Statistical Institute – Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), 2009–2021

The following publications are supplemented by the data in this project.

• González, Libertad, and Sofia Trommlerová. “The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility in Spain.” AEA Papers and Proceedings 114 (May 2024): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20241123.