Optimizing Water Resources Allocation Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case of Great Ruaha River Subbasin, Tanzania, 2021

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This study undertook extensive fieldwork and data collection in the Rufiji Basin, conducted from September 27th to October 8th, 2021. The primary objectives were to introduce the Research Assistants (RA’s) and the RESBEN project to the Rufiji Basin Water Board (RBWB), establish valuable contacts, select sample sites for qualitative work, and gain a comprehensive understanding of the district and catchments under examination. Key aims included the collection of climate data, hydrological reports, water abstraction data, and insights into local irrigation schemes and water abstraction points. The data collected during the first phase encompassed water abstraction records, rainfall data from 17 stations, streamflow data from 14 stations, borehole data including location, depths, and yields, and reservoir data such as turbine discharge, spillway discharge, net evaporation, and elevation-volume curves. The study's main objective was to optimize water allocation among competing users in the Great Ruaha River subbasin. The research sought to answer critical questions concerning the effects of climate change on water availability, variations in surface and groundwater potential, and the optimization of water allocation considering diverse climatic and development circumstances. The study's results have been effectively shared to water users, watershed managers, and other stakeholders via a Systemic Adaptive Management (SAM) workshop.

Sustainable water resource development remains elusive because development has largely externalized costs to the environment and vulnerable people. There is a need for novel research theory, methodologies & practice in order to meet the UN SDGs and realise the Africa Water Vision 2025. We propose to launch an innovative research approach: the Adaptive Systemic Approach (ASA). Our aim is to apply transformative, transdisciplinary, community-engaged research, to shift water development outcomes towards achieving the SDGs. We focus on continental water development priorities: water supply and pollution. This collaboration brings together the ARUA Water Centre of Excellence (CoE) and UK partner, the University of Sheffield (UoS). The 8 CoE nodes are: i) Addis Ababa U, Ethiopia; U Rwanda, Rwanda; U Cheikh Anta Diop, Senegal; Dar es Salaam U, Tanzania, Makerere U, Uganda (DAC least developed); ii) U Lagos, Nigeria (DAC lower-middle income); and iii) U Cape Town, Rhodes U (CoE Hub), South Africa (DAC upper-middle income). We propose a country-based Case Study structure to support local research development and pathways to local impact (Figure 1 in Case for Support). We use an SDG6 (water and sanitation) centred model, that links SDGs related to landscape water resources with SDGs related to water services. (This model underpins the successful UKRI:GCRF Capability Grant:"Water for African SDGs"). We raise three research questions (RQ) related to water development priorities. Three catchment-based Case Studies address RQ1: HOW IS WATER USED, TO WHOSE BENEFIT? (Rufigi R Tanzania, Senegal R Senegal, and Blue Nile R Ethiopia). Two Case Studies focus on urban water pollution (Kampala City Uganda and Lagos City Nigeria), addressing RQ2: WHAT ARE THE SOURCES, PATHWAYS AND IMPACT OF POLLUTION IN URBAN WATER SYSTEMS? A cross-cutting Case Study addresses water resource protection and biodiversity in all CSs, and a biodiversity site in Rwanda. By the completion of the project we commit to leaving local people effectively linked with institutions making decisions about water that affect them. Therefore all Case Studies address the question RQ3: HOW CAN LOCAL CAPACITY TO ENGAGE IN PARTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE BE DEVELOPED FOR: I) EQUITABLE WATER SHARING, II) COMMUNITY POLLUTION RESILIENCE, AND III) ECOSYSTEM PROTECTION AND RESTORATION? The novel Adaptive Systemic Approach (ASA) provides a coherent methodological framework that will support Case Study comparisons, changed water development practice, and will embed pathways to impact throughout the project. The ASA requires engaged research, and draws on three core theoretical concepts, with associated methods: Complex Social-Ecological Systems, Transdisciplinarity, and Transformative Social Learning (Elaborated in Case for Support). These concepts underpin four ASA steps, followed in each Case Study: 1. BOUND: Researchers engage with a full range of stakeholders to identify a relevant, local, water-development issue, and scope the Case Study. 2. ADAPTIVE PLANNING PROCESS: Stakeholders co-create a contextually informed vision of the future state of their selected local issue, and co-develop an objectives hierarchy to move towards resolving the issue. 3. CONCURRENT ACTIVITIES 3.1 RESEARCH Each Case study team addresses the specific research questions, delivering data for resolving the problem. 3.2 PARTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE DEVELOPMENT Local people, formal, and traditional, water governance institutions together move towards local people being part of land and water decision-making. 3.3 STRATEGIC ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT (SAM) - stakeholders will be trained in a process for systemic, responsive, contextual, co-management. 4. PARTICIPATORY MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF REFLEXIVE LEARNING Researchers and stakeholders co-develop indicators, co-monitor, co-reflect on progress, co-learn and adapt, using SAM. Following the ASA in the case studies embeds the theory of change, and the pathways to impact.