Forecast Based Anticipatory Action Impact Evaluation 2024 Bangladesh

This study was conducted by the World Food Program's Office of Evaluation unit, with technical assistance from World Bank's DECDI unit. The study randomized the timing of electronic transfers to households living in flood affected districts of Bangladesh in July 2024. There are 3 arms, with the first arm receiving the transfers before the flood peaked and remaining 2 arms receiving transfers with a 1-month interval each. The flood peak was predicted by Bangladesh's Flood Forecasting Warning Center, and after flood forecast intensity met the criteria set out by WFP's country office, the transfers were provided to households via the bKash platform. A local survey firm, DATA was hired by WFP to conduct surveys with respondents after each tranche of payments. The survey questionnaire covers food security, psychological wellbeing and coping strategies households utilized after the floods. The first 2 rounds of data were conducted over the phone and last round was done in-person, due to movement restrictions associated with floods and curfews imposed in Bangladesh. The results are published in the World Bank working paper series. The funding for this data collection was provided by the World Food Program's Office of Evaluation and USAID.

The study covers the following main topics:

• Food Security
• Coping Strategies
• Psychological Wellbeing
• Agriculture
• Migration
• Food expenditures